Ahead of the Curve - May 2023 - Advocacy Update

In its proposed rule for Light-Duty and Medium-Duty cars and light trucks MY 2027-2032, EPA has made an effort to offer a technology-neutral proposal which will allow all existing technologies to remain viable. The proposal is estimated to reduce vehicle-related emissions by over 60%. EPA plans to continue the practice of averaging, banking and trading credits. As proposed, EPA estimates approximately 50% (67% LD and 46% MD by some calculations) of new vehicle sales will be battery electric vehicles (not including hybrid powertrains). EPA notes that the technologies to accomplish greater efficiency and reduced (or eliminated) emissions are all demonstrated and existing and claims this rule is not a technology forcing function, unlike some in the past. While vehicle purchase prices are expected to increase as a result of this proposal, anywhere between $400-1200 per vehicle, EPA estimates payback for this difference in just a few years for most vehicles due to reduced cost of operation and maintenance.

In its proposed rule for Heavy-Duty trucks MY2027-2032, EPA has made an effort to offer a technology-neutral proposal which will allow all existing technologies to remain viable. The proposal is estimated to reduce vehicle-related emissions by over 17%. EPA plans to continue the practice of averaging, banking and trading credits. As proposed, EPA estimates nearly 50 percent of new vocational vehicles and 25 to 35 percent of new tractors in MY 2032 would be zero-emissions vehicles (i.e. Battery electric vehicle, or hydrogen ICE). Importantly, EPA is NOT aligning with the California Air Resources Board on many requirements and appears to fall well short of an all-electric outcome. EPA recognizes the current limitations of available zero-emissions technology in vocational and long-haul applications and has tried to respect that while encouraging further investment in improving those classes. While truck purchase prices are expected to increase as a result of this proposal, EPA estimates payback for this difference in operating and maintenance costs in 1-5 years for most vehicles.

For more information, contact Alex Boesenberg at aboesenberg@mema.org